Monday, April 12, 2010

Looking at alternate formats in the NHL standings

image Different point formats would leave different paths to the Stanley Cup for some teams, and possibly dead ends for others, including the Montreal Canadiens.

There were a lot of comments and criticisms, on various message boards, over how the final playoff spot in the NHL Eastern Conference came to a decision by shootout.

Some were good, some were bad. Many feel that a shootout is not the way to decide a critical game, such as a gold-medal game in the WJC, and it should be the taken out of the NHL regular season. That or the league needs to make changes in the points system.

One solution is to adopt the 3-2-1 point system in the NHL. Three points for the regulation win, two for over time/shootout and one for a non-regulation loss.

Below is the NHL’s Eastern and Western Conference final standings, with regulation and non regulation won-loss records separated.

Eastern Conference

Team

RW

RL

OT/SO W

OT/SO L

PTS

Washington

43

15

11

13

121

New Jersey

40

27

8

7

103

Buffalo

35

27

10

10

100

Pittsburgh

33

28

14

7

101

Ottawa

34

32

10

6

94

Boston

25

30

14

13

91

Philadelphia

35

35

6

6

88

Montreal

24

33

15

10

88

NYR

34

33

4

11

87

Atlanta

29

34

6

13

83

Carolina

26

37

9

10

80

Tampa Bay

25

36

9

12

80

NYI

20

37

14

11

79

Florida

24

37

8

13

77

Toronto

21

38

9

14

74

Western Conference

Team

RW

RL

OT/SO W

OT/SO L

POINTS

San Jose

43

20

8

11

113

Chicago

37

22

15

8

112

Vancouver

41

28

8

5

103

Phoenix

31

25

19

7

107

Detroit

33

24

11

14

102

Los Angeles

32

27

14

9

101

Nashville

33

29

14

6

100

Colorado

34

30

9

9

95

St. Louis

30

32

10

10

90

Calgary

35

32

5

10

90

Anaheim

31

32

8

11

89

Dallas

28

31

9

14

88

Minnesota

28

36

10

8

84

Columbus

27

35

5

15

79

Edmonton

18

47

9

8

62

 

Next are the conference standings based on a 3-2-1 points format.

Also added is the format, used by the NBA, that ranks the three division winners and the fourth best team in the conference one to four.

In other words, you could win your division but still be the fourth seeded team. I did a piece on adopting the NBA format, and resulting scenarios in previous seasons, last year when I wrote on Bleacher Report.

Conference Rankings (3-2-1 Points System)

  East Pts   West Pts
1 Washington 157 1 San Jose 151
2 New Jersey 146 2 Chicago 150
3 Pittsburgh 140 3 Vancouver 149
4 Buffalo 136 4 Phoenix 141
5 Ottawa 132 5 Los Angeles 138
6 Philadelphia 128 6 Nashville 135
7 NYR 124 7 Colorado 135
8 Boston 115 8 Detroit 132
9 Montreal 115 9 St. Louis 118
10 Atlanta 99 10 Calgary 115
11 Carolina 96 11 Anaheim 109
12 Tampa Bay 93 12 Minnesota 104
13 NYI 88 13 Dallas 102
14 Florida 88 14 Columbus 91
15 Toronto 81 15 Edmonton 72

Analysis: The Eastern Conference, using this format, puts the Northeast Division Sabres as the fourth seed.

Sunday’s Rangers/Flyers game would have had little meaning, but the Canadiens OT loss to Toronto, and Boston’s win over Washington on Suday would eliminate Montreal from the playoffs. Total wins, then regulation wins were used as tie-breakers.

In the Western Conference, Detroit would be the eighth seed. Dallas and Minnesota swap potential draft positions.

The downside to using a 3-2-1 format is that regular season points records would be shattered. The asterisk would need to be used.

Another Scenario: What if the NHL went back to ties?

Scrap the shootout and go back the way things were with the old-school point format (Win = 2pts Tie = 1pt) and a five minute overtime. Teams shootout records have been factored in as ties in this scenario.

How does that pan out? Let’s take a look.

NHL Standings based on Win-Loss-Tie Records

Eastern Conference

  W

L T POINTS
Washington 49 22 11 109
New Jersey 42 29 11 95
Buffalo 41 31 10 92
Pittsburgh 39 33 10 88
Ottawa 39 33 10 88
Philadelphia 37 38 7 81
NYR 35 40 7 77
Boston 29 34 19 77
Montreal 32 38 12 76
Atlanta 31 41 10 72
Carolina 31 42 9 71
Tampa Bay 30 41 11 71
Florida 26 40 16 68
NYI 26 42 14 66
Toronto 26 48 8 60

Western Conference

 

W

L

T

POINTS

San Jose 44 25 13 101
Chicago 43 24 15 101
Vancouver 45 29 8 98
Phoenix 36 26 20 92
Detroit 38 29 15 91
Nashville 39 31 12 90
Los Angeles 36 28 18 90
Calgary 37 35 10 84
Colorado 36 34 12 84
Anaheim 34 35 13 81
St. Louis 33 37 12 78
Minnesota 33 37 12 78
Dallas 30 35 17 77
Columbus 30 40 12 72
Edmonton 19 49 14 52

Going this way has little change atop either conference, but again has the Rangers in and the Canadiens out in the Eastern Conference. A pair of Sutters in Calgary might have liked this method a lot better in the west.

Keep in mind that these variations are just based on the final numbers from the 2009-10 season. A straight 1 to 16 format (which was used in the early ‘80s) or going by point percentage would be otehr ways of seeding the playoff contenders.

If one of these formats was put in place down the road, there would be more strategy involved in the game (ie: playing for the tie) and results would obviously be different.

Fans in Montreal should be grateful neither was used this season.The Canadiens collapse in the final three games would not have been as forgiving in one of the above options.




5 comments:

Anonymous said...

ya! the habs rule!

V said...

"Fans in Montreal should be grateful neither was used this season.The Canadiens collapse in the final three games would not have been as forgiving in one of the above options."

You're ignoring the fact that the points structure determines how teams play. Currently, teams are likelier to go for the "tie" point near the end of the 3rd period. If the points structure was different, the Canadiens' strategy would probably also be different.

Kyle said...

No no no...

All of these methods leave the Leafs in 29th place...

Please re-work them so the Leafs make the playoffs...

Kevin aka "yathehabsrule" said...

V: If you note the paragraphs above the one you quoted, you will notice that I do indicate what you claim I ignore.

The results are merely hypotheticals based on the available stats.

Kyle: Well it just proves that, no matter how you look at it, the Leafs suck!

Anonymous said...

Can you add a fourth method - No OTs period. That is, if tied at end of 3rd period, that is it - no OT. Some of us are old enough to remember when that was the RULE.

Thanks